Deal Intelligence · IC cockpit
East Africa Precision Nutrition Ltd
Synthetic acquisition case · Premix and feed additives · Kenya / Tanzania / Uganda
Decision signal
Investigate before commitment
NPV
£10.6m
IRR
18.1%
MOIC
2.12×
EV / EBITDA
10.00×
Decisive unknown
The contractual status and true profitability of the largest customer. Nothing else in this assessment changes the answer as much.
What changes the decision?
The deal loses value below £0.1m normalised EBITDA or 6.47× exit multiple.
Synthetic demonstration · important disclosure
East Africa Precision Nutrition Ltd is fictional. The company, transaction, financials and outputs are synthetic and illustrative. Nothing here is investment advice or a statement about a real business. The deterministic model uses only displayed inputs and assumptions, not generative AI or external facts.
Value creation
Five-year deal-return trajectory
£m · selected base scenario · hold-period exit in Y5
Scenario range
Return envelope — not probabilities
Transaction bridge
Price paid to modelled value
Sensitivity surface
Growth × normalised EBITDA NPV
Every cell reruns the selected deterministic scenario. Hover for NPV, IRR and signal.
Driver analysis
Actual NPV impact around base
NPV £m · baseline 10.6
Decision thresholds
What changes the decision?
Market architecture
TAM → SAM → SOM ranges
Company revenue £28.0m · all market ranges are synthetic assumptions requiring independent validation.
Country opportunity
Readiness × growth × addressable market
Risk constellation
Exposure versus evidence quality
Customer concentration
38
Exposure · evidence 51/100
Supplier dependency
68
Exposure · evidence 28/100
FX
62
Exposure · evidence 25/100
Regulatory transfer
55
Exposure · evidence 32/100
Working capital
48
Exposure · evidence 35/100
Evidence quality
49
Exposure · evidence 51/100
Customer concentration
A single account carries the share entered above. At 38% the loss of that account removes more EBITDA than the modelled synergies add.
Supplier dependency
Premix formulation depends on imported micro-ingredients from a small supplier set. Contract length and price-pass-through terms are unverified in this sample.
Regulatory and geographic exposure
Three regulators, three registration regimes and cross-border duty treatment. Product registration transfer on change of control is a live diligence item.
Evidence gaps
No audited accounts, no customer contracts, no plant utilisation data and no independent market study in this sample. Every figure here is synthetic.
IC context
Scenario changes & methodology
Inputs exactly as entered
Synergies ramp over three years
Bull
Premix is a formulation and service business, not a commodity. If the modelled margin survives a quality-of-earnings review and the top account is contracted, the buyer acquires regional registration coverage that would take years to build.
Bear
The entry multiple is paid for a margin that depends on one account and on imported inputs priced in hard currency. A single contract loss or an FX step-change moves the case below the entry price.
Decisive unknown
The contractual status and true profitability of the largest customer. Nothing else in this assessment changes the answer as much.
- 01The price is set against a margin that has not been independently verified; the assessment is a range, not a number.
- 02Modelled synergies are smaller than the EBITDA at risk in the largest customer account.
- 03Country attractiveness is not uniform: Kenya carries the revenue, Tanzania carries the growth, Uganda carries the distribution risk.
- 04Regulatory transfer on change of control is a timing risk to revenue, not only a legal formality.
- 05Evidence readiness, not market attractiveness, is the binding constraint on a confident recommendation.
Diligence questions
- Q1Show the contractual basis, pricing mechanism and renewal date for the largest customer account over the last three years.
- Q2Which input costs are imported, in which currency, and how has pass-through actually behaved in the last two price cycles?
- Q3What happens to product registrations, plant licences and distributor agreements on a change of control in each country?
Confidential diligence
Full report architecture
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Available in a confidential Syntera diligence engagement.
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Assess my company or transactionObserved, modelled and assumption-based figures remain distinct. When evidence is insufficient, Syntera identifies the gap rather than inventing certainty.