Syntera

Investment Lab · IC cockpit

Regional FMD Vaccine Fill-Finish Facility — East Africa

Synthetic capital project · Illustrative cash flows · No external evidence

Decision signal

Proceed with conditions

68 / 100

NPV

£9.2m

IRR

23.9%

MOIC

2.89×

Payback

Year 6

Decisive unknown

Whether contracted, funded offtake exists — not whether technical need exists. Need and funded demand are different quantities.

What changes the decision?

Base case turns negative below 25.3m contracted doses or £0.41 realised price.

Evidence confidence36/100
ObservedModelledAssumption
Synthetic demonstration · important disclosure

The Regional FMD Vaccine Fill-Finish Facility — East Africa is fictional. Costs, prices, volumes and outputs are synthetic and illustrative. Nothing here is investment advice or a statement about a real facility or programme. Outputs come from the displayed deterministic model, not generative AI or external data.

Value trajectory

Construction, operations and cumulative recovery

£m · grouped tooltip · terminal value reflected when enabled

Scenario fan

Cumulative value trajectories — not probabilities

Sensitivity surface

Price × volume NPV

Realised price shift
Contracted volume shift
-30%-15%0%+15%+30%

Every cell reruns the deterministic model. Hover for NPV, IRR and signal.

Return drivers

Actual NPV impact around base

Price
-3.121.5
Volume
2.515.8
Variable cost
3.514.8
Implementation delay
4.914.3
Discount rate
6.013.2
CAPEX
6.112.2
Fixed OPEX
7.411.0

NPV £m · baseline 9.2

Capital recovery

CAPEX-to-payback waterfall

Build CAPEX
Contribution
Fixed costs
Cumulative

Decision thresholds

What changes the decision?

Contracted volumeNegative below 25.3m doses
Realised priceNegative below £0.41 / dose
Maximum CAPEXViable up to £28.9m
Commissioning delayViable through year 4
Discount rateViable up to 23.9%

Evidence pathway

Institutional gates before commitment

1Demand validationPartial

Documented national vaccination programmes and dose requirements in the served countries, not a modelled technical need.

2Procurement and offtakeNot evidenced

Signed or tendered multi-year offtake covering a stated minimum share of year-1 volume.

3RegulationNot evidenced

Manufacturing authorisation, batch-release pathway and national registration route agreed with each regulator.

4Technology transferNot evidenced

Antigen supply agreement, fill-finish process transfer and validated cold chain with a named partner.

5Working capitalNot evidenced

Facility sized for antigen prepayment terms and public-sector payment delay, funded separately from CAPEX.

6Execution capacityNot evidenced

Qualified technical leadership recruited before financial close, with a quality function independent of production.

Status reflects this synthetic sample only; it does not imply completion.

Scenario controls

Base assumption changes

Inputs exactly as entered

Model transparency

Methodology

Bull

Regional fill-finish shortens delivery to outbreak response and earns a premium over imported doses. If offtake is contracted before financial close, the facility operates near break-even volume from the first operating year.

Bear

The plant is a fixed-cost asset facing lumpy public procurement. Without contracted volume, a single delayed tender season pushes utilisation below break-even while fixed OPEX and debt service continue.

Decisive unknown

Whether contracted, funded offtake exists — not whether technical need exists. Need and funded demand are different quantities.

  1. 01The case is driven by contracted volume, not by price: volume sensitivity dominates every other input.
  2. 02Operating break-even volume is small relative to planned volume, so the risk is utilisation timing rather than unit economics.
  3. 03CAPEX overrun hurts the return less than a two-year delay in offtake.
  4. 04Technical dose requirement is not demand; only funded procurement belongs in a revenue line.
  5. 05Without terminal value the case must stand on the evaluation horizon alone — it is switched off by default here for that reason.
Diligence questions
  1. Q1What share of year-1 volume is contracted or tendered, by which buyer, and with what payment terms?
  2. Q2What is the antigen supply arrangement, and what happens to unit cost if the supplier reprices mid-term?
  3. Q3What is the funding plan for working capital and for a 25% CAPEX overrun without diluting the sponsor?

Evidence acquisition

Next evidence required

01Written procurement intentions and budget lines from target buyers
02Antigen supply term sheet with price and volume commitment
03Regulatory pre-submission meetings minuted in each country
04Independent CAPEX and utility cost estimate from an engineering firm
05Cold chain and distribution cost study for the served corridors

Confidential investment case

Full report architecture

1. Investment question and decision framing
2. Investment snapshot and preliminary signal
3. Facility concept and operating model
4. Scenario set and assumption changes
5. Revenue and cash-flow trajectory
6. Sensitivity analysis
7. Implementation gates
8. Headline findings and committee questions
Advanced report modules10 locked

Available in a confidential Syntera Investment Lab engagement.

9. Demand evidence: procurement, tenders and budget lines
10. Antigen supply and technology transfer assessment
11. Engineering CAPEX build-up and utility model
12. Regulatory pathway by country
13. Cold chain, logistics and distribution costing
14. Working capital and financing structure
15. Monte Carlo and probabilistic risk model
16. Competitive supply response and pricing floor
17. Public-good and cost-benefit appraisal
18. Investment committee recommendation pack

Free users can adjust this synthetic sample and see the limited on-screen result. Raw-data downloads, saved projects, named-project analysis and the full investment case are Professional and Enterprise capabilities. Do not send confidential documents through this public page.

Assess my investment

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