Vaccine intelligence
Vaccine demand. Supply. The gap between.
A transparent view of modelled FMD vaccine requirement, modelled producer supply and the funded gap between them. FMD is the only disease supported in this workspace today; no other disease datasets exist behind this selector.
Forecast coverage
120 countries · 2026–2033
VADEMOS livestock anchors for 2026 and 2033, interpolated in between.
2025 gap dataset
24 countries · base year 2025
Separate snapshot (2026-06-20). Never blended with the forecast.
Producer estimates
16 producers · 2025 sales, 2026 capacity
Model estimates of sales and capacity — not current available stock.
Filters
107 countries in scope · years 2026–2033
Regions
Values between 2026 and 2033 are linearly interpolated; both anchor years keep their source values.
Scenario controls
Every figure on this page is recomputed from these settings. They describe a technical vaccination scenario, not forecast purchases or funded programmes.
Share of the cattle population included in the vaccination scenario.
Primary course plus boosters. Default 2 follows the existing model.
Applied to the summed 2025 producer sales estimates. Model default 3%.
Share of modelled global producer sales treated as available to the covered market. Model default 60%.
Optional demand scenario for small ruminants and pigs. This is an assumption, not measured doses.
Off by default. These countries hold contingency bank access rather than routine vaccination programmes, so including them overstates routine demand.
Not every cattle population requires routine FMD vaccination. Country eligibility, control stage and national policy must be validated before any of these volumes is treated as a market.
107 countries, 2026–2033: modelled requirement moves from 1.73bn to 1.88bn doses per year at 100% coverage and 2 dose(s) per head.
Cattle in scope 2026
Modelled867.5mhead
107 countries after filters. 31 use carry-forward populations.
Dose requirement 2026
Assumption1.73bndoses/yr
Technical scenario: cattle × coverage × doses per head. Not forecast purchases.
Dose requirement 2033
Assumption1.88bndoses/yr
8.2% change across the selected window.
Interval validity
Modelled68%of countries
Share of selected countries whose 2026 and 2033 intervals both validate. The rest show Unknown.
Invalid model output excluded from these aggregates (reported as unavailable, never converted to a real zero): Mauritius 2028–2033. The source point prediction is at or below zero for these country-years, which is a model artefact rather than a livestock population.
Modelled dose requirement by region
Units: doses per year
Stacked by FAO region. Toggle any region in the legend to isolate it.
Largest modelled requirements, 2033
Units: doses per year
Click a bar to open the country detail drawer. Amber bars use carry-forward populations.
Requirement versus addressable supply
Units: million doses per year
Supply is modelled global producer sales × addressable share, compared with the whole-market requirement.
2025 unfunded gap, ranked
Units: million doses, base year 2025
From the 24-country gap dataset. This is a different snapshot to the 2026–2033 forecast above and must not be read as a continuation of it.
No country in the 2025 gap dataset matches the current selection.