Methods
Every figure, traceable to a formula and a source
This page exists so that no number in Syntera has to be taken on trust. It states what the data is, what is computed from it, which controls are assumptions, and where the analysis stops.
Purpose
Syntera's vaccine workspace answers one question honestly: how large is the modelled requirement for FMD vaccine, how much supply is plausibly addressable, and what remains between them. It is a decision-support and research tool for people who already understand animal health systems — not a market report and not a procurement recommendation.
Data and coverage
- 120 countries
- VADEMOS livestock forecast anchors for 2026 and 2033, interpolated between.
- 24 countries
- Need versus estimated purchased doses, base year 2025, separate snapshot.
- 16 producers
- Estimated 2025 doses sold and 2026 capacity with confidence ratings.
These three datasets are deliberately kept distinct in the interface. The forecast covers many more countries than the gap dataset, and the producer set is a supply-side reference with no country detail. Merging them would create false coverage.
Formulas
Interpolated cattle population
cattle(y) = c2026 + (c2033 − c2026) × (y − 2026) / 7
Linear between the two supplied anchors only. Both anchor years retain their source values exactly; nothing is extrapolated beyond 2033 or before 2026.
Modelled dose requirement
doses(y) = cattle(y) × coverage × doses_per_head × (1 + other_host_uplift)
Defaults: coverage 100%, 2 doses per head, uplift 0%. This is a technical vaccination scenario, not a purchase forecast. The uplift is an assumption for small ruminants and pigs, not measured doses.
Modelled producer supply
supply(y) = Σ producer_sales_2025 × (1 + growth)^(y − 2025) × addressable_share
Model defaults: 3% growth, 60% addressable share. The sum uses the supplied producer rows only; rows without a sales estimate are excluded rather than counted as zero. Capacity is never substituted for sales.
Gap and surplus
gap = max(requirement − supply, 0) · surplus = max(supply − requirement, 0)
Reported separately and never netted. Coverage ratio = supply ÷ requirement, undefined when requirement is zero.
2025 funded gap
gap_2025 = max(needed − estimated_purchased, 0)
Applies only to the 24-country gap dataset with base year 2025. Not comparable line-by-line with the 2026–2033 forecast.
Interval validity test
valid ⇔ type ≠ LASTVALUE ∧ lower ≥ 0 ∧ upper > 0 ∧ lower ≤ point ≤ upper
Failing intervals are treated as unavailable. Aggregated bounds across countries are labelled a scenario envelope, never a confidence interval.
Evidence labels
- Modelled — derived from the supplied dataset without a user control in the path.
- Assumption — depends on a control you set: coverage, doses per head, growth, addressable share or other-host uplift.
- Not available — the dataset holds no usable value. Displayed as Unknown, never as zero.
Limitations
- Livestock anchors are forecasts of cattle populations, not of vaccine purchases. Nothing in the source data states that a population is inside a vaccination policy.
- Producer sales and capacity values are model estimates with qualitative confidence ratings, several of them low. They are not audited sales, inventory or committed supply.
- Country eligibility, control stage and national policy must be validated before any modelled volume is treated as an addressable market.
- Where demand is filtered to a region while supply remains global in scope, the resulting gap is an order-of-magnitude comparison only. A regional gap requires an explicit, stated supply allocation assumption.
- Serotype counts are requirement signals from the gap dataset. They are not laboratory vaccine matching evidence and imply nothing about strain suitability.
- Announced or planned capacity is excluded entirely because no sourced values were supplied.
- No prices, revenues or margins are modelled. Any economics would be an explicit price scenario, and none is included.
- There is no live feed. Figures change only when the dataset held in this project changes.
- Two countries carry negative or near-zero modelled point estimates in the source anchors; these are excluded from charts rather than plotted as negative counts.
Provenance and snapshot dates
- Source
- Syntera FMD market module and supplied VADEMOS livestock forecasts
- Reference commit
- e57037858c8b0b502a3d9c6a2ad2f17e5e5f1c19
- Model snapshot
- 2026-06-20
- Sources reviewed
- 2026-09-21
All doses, capacity and purchased quantities are existing MODEL ESTIMATES, not independently verified current sales, inventory or funded demand. VADEMOS anchors are livestock forecasts, not vaccine purchase forecasts.
The gap dataset carries a June 2026 model snapshot with base year 2025, while source documents were reviewed on 21 September 2026. Those two dates are different things and are shown separately throughout.
Sources
- WRLFMD country reports
World Reference Laboratory for FMD country report pages: serotype detections submitted for characterisation.
- FAO EuFMD — objective 3 activity area
European Commission for the Control of FMD workstream covering global FMD control support.
- WOAH vaccine banks
World Organisation for Animal Health description of how regional vaccine banks are structured and triggered.
- WOAH practical guidelines for national procurement of veterinary vaccines
Guidance on tendering, specification and quality assurance for national vaccine procurement.
Independent author
Syntera is the independent work of Dr Bouda Vosough Ahmadi, veterinary and agricultural economist. Analyses, models and opinions published here are his own and carry no institutional endorsement or official status. Nothing here constitutes veterinary, clinical, procurement or investment advice.